Airborne Respiratory Impact Assessment (ARIA)

Bar graph with magnifying glass icon. Text: Airborne respiratory impact assessment. A person in a mask pointing at a floating graph with other floating graphs.

Created by Dr. Christensen, the COVID-19 ARIA helps you make safer choices. Learn about this assessment tool!

Wondering how risky it is to attend an event or visit a doctor?

The ARIA helps you make safer choices. Whether for yourself or your household, this tool shows the risks and offers tips to stay protected.

Virus graphics floating with a toolbox outline graphic.

How does it work?

Created by Dr. Christensen, the ARIA uses science and data to assess risk. It considers:

  • local infection rates from Canadian COVID-19 Forecast data,
  • your vaccination status,
  • long COVID risk based on your age,
  • room size and ventilation quality, and
  • who is masking and the type of masks used.

The ARIA helps you understand the risks of specific activities.

We use it to suggest ways to reduce risk.

A person in a mask pointing at a floating graph with other floating graphs.

Want your own assessment?

Curious about a specific activity?

Request a personalized assessment!

Join the conversation!

On select Tuesday evenings, Dr. Christensen hosts COVID-19 Data Discussions. He delves into real-life scenarios, dives into the latest research, and shares tips to make daily life safer.

How we use the assessment

This diagram shows how we figure out COVID-19 risk. Imagine three big arrows pointing to the right, one on top of the other. Top Arrow: Infection Estimates: This arrow shows where we get our basic information. We use data from the COVID-19 Resources team and other scientists. This data tells us how many new infections there are each day in each province and across Canada. Middle Arrow: Household Risk Estimates: This arrow shows how we calculate risk for a person or a family if someone gets COVID-19. A big part of this risk is Long COVID, which can last a long time. We use information from studies in the UK, China, and the US to understand Long COVID risks. We measure risk in something called QALYs, which is a way to measure health. Then we explain the risk in other ways people can understand. Bottom Arrow: ARIA: This arrow shows the final step. The ARIA takes all this information and figures out the risk for a specific real-life situation, like going to a concert or a party. It uses a special math model from scientists at the University of Colorado. This model mostly looks at how COVID-19 can spread through the air in a room.

Here’s what happens:

  • The ARIA team reviews your request;
  • if your scenario is featured in a Data Discussion, we’ll ask for your permission;
  • if you provide your email, we’ll send you a copy of your results.

Note: It takes at least two weeks to create and verify your assessment. This ensures the results are accurate and reliable, so plan ahead if you need it for a specific event.

A diagram that explains the steps required to prepare a personal assessment. You complete the form C19 team reviews and prepares the scenario Scientist & C19 team review it in an internal C19 meeting If the assessment is complex go to 5 Scientist reviews and prepares the scenario Scientist presents at Tuesday Data Discussion C19 team finishes analysis C19 team creates output C19 team delivers output C19 may present on the Saturday C19 Resources public meeting Notes: **Steps 3, 7, 8 include quality checks. We work on requests based on the date of your event. Due to limits of volunteer time, requests may take over two weeks to process. Link to request form: https://tinyurl.com/C19RSEForm

Work in progress: Standard assessments

We are also making a set of standard assessments. These will be based on scenarios people asked about. We make them general so everyone can use them. We will update these standard assessments when COVID-19 rates in Canada change a lot. We’ll change them if the rates go up or down by 50% or more. Always check the date on the assessment. This way you know you have the most recent information.

Disclaimer:  Important Notice: If you use this information, you’re doing it at your own risk. We’re sharing it with you as it is right now, and we can’t make any promises about it in future. We don’t promise that it’s good enough to sell, that it won’t cause problems with third party rights, or that it will work for what you need. We also can’t promise you’ll always be able to access it, that it is correct, or that it is safe from viruses or harmful material. Use it carefully!